Greenspan mentioned that there is about 1/3 probability that the country will head to recession this year (2007). Can he be wrong? No. He must be right. What he is saying is there is 2/3 probability the country will not head to recession this year. Whether there is a recession oor not, he is always right, depends on 1/3 or 2/3 you emphasized.
It is very interesting the media only pay attention to the 1/3 part, did not realize the whole statement is the country is unlikely (2/3>>1/3 ) head to recession.
So, the question is not how likely, but will or will not. I tend to lean on the will side...
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