Greenspan mentioned that there is about 1/3 probability that the country will head to recession this year (2007). Can he be wrong? No. He must be right. What he is saying is there is 2/3 probability the country will not head to recession this year. Whether there is a recession oor not, he is always right, depends on 1/3 or 2/3 you emphasized.
It is very interesting the media only pay attention to the 1/3 part, did not realize the whole statement is the country is unlikely (2/3>>1/3 ) head to recession.
So, the question is not how likely, but will or will not. I tend to lean on the will side...
Friday, May 18, 2007
Monday, May 7, 2007
Invisible hand vs Monopoly II
If Mankiw is right, I would guess he thinks
Senate kills bid to import prescription drugs
is also a result of invisible hand...Invisible hand vs Monopoly
Mankiw in his Blog advertises his textbook. Fair enough...but he mentioned:
"If you would like a copy and are not a professor eligible for a free one, you will have to rely on the invisible hand of the market to satisfy your cravings."
The price seems not driven by invisible, but visible hands: a good network between the publishers, the authors, and the high lobbying effort them to prevent price competition through imports. Simple examples are kill the second hand market every few years. Tell me why do we need a new edition of Introduction to Calculus book every few years? Tell me why you need an updated edition for many economic books? Tell me why you are able to sell at more than 50% discount for non-US edition in non-US countries but still making a profit? Tell me why most US online book store refuse to sell the non-US edition with identical contents? Tell me if you are not overpricing.
With almost perfectly inelastic textbook demand by students, the network is able to maintain high profit for long time. Poor students...
Please do you claim the price of your textbook is governed by invisible hand. It is govern by a few groups of people by exercising their monopoly power!!
"If you would like a copy and are not a professor eligible for a free one, you will have to rely on the invisible hand of the market to satisfy your cravings."
The price seems not driven by invisible, but visible hands: a good network between the publishers, the authors, and the high lobbying effort them to prevent price competition through imports. Simple examples are kill the second hand market every few years. Tell me why do we need a new edition of Introduction to Calculus book every few years? Tell me why you need an updated edition for many economic books? Tell me why you are able to sell at more than 50% discount for non-US edition in non-US countries but still making a profit? Tell me why most US online book store refuse to sell the non-US edition with identical contents? Tell me if you are not overpricing.
With almost perfectly inelastic textbook demand by students, the network is able to maintain high profit for long time. Poor students...
Please do you claim the price of your textbook is governed by invisible hand. It is govern by a few groups of people by exercising their monopoly power!!
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